La sombra de Oriente Próximo sobre Asia

TEL AVIV – En 2010, Hillary Clinton, en ese entonces Secretaria de Estado de EE.UU., anunció un giro hacia el este (el llamado “pivote asiático”) de la estrategia global estadounidense. Se hacía necesario no solo por los problemas de seguridad que planteaba el ascenso de China, sino como consecuencia de la prolongada y costosa obsesión de Estados Unidos con Oriente Próximo.

Por largo tiempo, Oriente Próximo ha puesto frente a Estados Unidos retos formidables que han acabado por superar sus capacidades imperiales y minar su apoyo público interno. Sin embargo, la pregunta de fondo es si cuenta todavía con la disposición y la capacidad de sostener sus pretensiones globales. Después de todo, Asia no plantea exigencias menores que Oriente Próximo. De hecho, para hacerles frente puede ser necesario conciliar el énfasis en la primera con la continuidad de su presencia en la segunda, aunque sea solo porque ambas regiones tienen tanto en común.

Para comenzar, en una zona llena de disputas territoriales y viejas rivalidades tan amargas como el conflicto árabe-israelí, Estados Unidos se ve ante un entorno geopolítico donde no existe ninguna arquitectura de seguridad ni mecanismo de común acuerdo para solucionar conflictos. La división de la Península de Corea, el conflicto de India y Pakistán sobre Cachemira y el problema de Taiwán (isla que, según un estudio realizado en 2009 por la RAND Corporation, Estados Unidos para 2020 ya no podría defender ante un eventual ataque chino) parecen tan difíciles de tratar como la disputa entre israelíes y palestinos.

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