El ascenso de un gigante inseguro

SEÚL – Para cuando la economía de China desplace a la de Estados Unidos y se convierta en la mayor del mundo (en algún momento de aquí a unos pocos años), el país habrá cimentado su condición de gran potencia militar (potencia que en su afán de afirmación estratégica ya despierta el temor de sus vecinos). Pero lo cierto es que el ascenso de China es el ascenso de una potencia solitaria y vulnerable, enfrentada a serios obstáculos en el plano interno.

China se encuentra en este momento rodeada de bases militares y aliados de los Estados Unidos. Si bien los países asiáticos en su mayoría están interesados en mantener e incluso ampliar sus lazos económicos con China, ninguno (con excepción de Corea del Norte, que depende de la ayuda china) está dispuesto a aceptar que sea la principal potencia regional. De hecho, la entrada en la escena internacional de actores como Indonesia y la India, aliados de Estados Unidos, se debe en gran medida al ascenso de China.

Por su parte, Estados Unidos trasladó a Asia una importante cuota de su poder militar, lo que incluye una notoria presencia de uniformados en Australia y Filipinas, el actual despliegue del 60% de su capacidad naval en la región y el fortalecimiento de sus acuerdos de defensa con Japón y Corea del Sur. Además, Estados Unidos promueve el Acuerdo Transpacífico, un tratado económico y comercial que excluye a China pero incluye a muchos de sus vecinos.

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