Возвышение гиганта на глиняных ногах

СЕУЛ – К тому моменту, как Китай обгонит США и станет первым в мире по экономической мощи, а это случится в ближайшие несколько лет, он прочно укрепится в статусе военной сверхдержавы, чье стремление к стратегическому самоутверждению уже вызывает серьезную озабоченность среди его соседей. Но истина заключается в том, что Китай – пусть и усиливающаяся, но изолированная, уязвимая держава, которой грозят внутренние проблемы, потенциально способные ее парализовать.

Китай сейчас окружен союзниками США и их военными базами. Хотя азиатские страны в основном хотят поддерживать и даже расширять экономические связи с Китаем, ни одна из них (кроме Северной Кореи, зависящей от китайской помощи) не готова принять его в качестве главной силы региона. Фактически, такие союзники США, как Индонезия и Индия, стали игроками глобального масштаба главным образом в ответ на возвышение Китая.

В свою очередь, США переместили в направлении Азии значительную часть своего военного потенциала (расквартировав большие воинские контингенты в Австралии и на Филиппинах и перебросив в этот регион 60% своего военно-морского флота) и усилили военное сотрудничество с Японией и Южной Кореей. Более того, они помогают в создании Транс-Тихоокеанского партнерства, торгово-экономического альянса, не включающего Китай, но зато включающего многих его соседей по региону.

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