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JERUSALÉN – El acuerdo provisional logrado en Ginebra entre los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Segundad de las Naciones Unidas más Alemania (el P5+1) y el Irán probablemente sea el mejor que se podía conseguir para limitar el programa nuclear de este país, dadas las circunstancias actuales. Los Estados Unidos y sus aliados occidentales eran renuentes a aventurarse a una opción militar y no concertar un acuerdo habría permitido al Irán continuar sin trabas por la vía de obtener armas nucleares.

En un mundo ideal, se debería haber obligado al Irán a abandonar totalmente su programa nuclear y entregar todo su uranio enriquecido a una potencia exterior, pero, desde un punto de vista realista, se trataba de un objetivo inalcanzable. Así, pues, el resultado de las conversaciones de Ginebra es el de que el Irán ha logrado cierta legitimación internacional como potencia en el umbral nuclear, que preocupa profundamente a sus vecinos en su región, desde Arabia Saudí e Israel hasta Turquía, Egipto y los pequeños y vulnerables Estados del Golfo.

Los estadistas occidentales tienen razón al congratularse de haber evitado una grave crisis inmediata, pero se equivocan al creer que han resuelto el problema de la amenaza nuclear iraní. De hecho, es una ingenuidad imaginar que en los próximos seis meses se alcanzará un acuerdo final con el Irán: los experimentados diplomáticos iraníes procurarán que no sea así.

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