Défaites diplomatiques américaines

JÉRUSALEM – L'accord provisoire conclu à Genève entre les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies plus l'Allemagne (le P5+1) et l'Iran est probablement la meilleure méthode possible pour barrer la route au programme nucléaire iranien, étant donné les circonstances présentes. Les Etats-Unis et leurs alliés occidentaux étaient peu disposés à risquer une option militaire, et ne pas parvenir à un tel accord aurait permis à l'Iran de procéder sans peine à l'acquisition d'armes nucléaires.

Dans des conditions idéales, l'Iran aurait dû abandonner son programme nucléaire tout en remettant la totalité de son uranium enrichi à une puissance extérieure. Mais en fait, cela était impossible. Le résultat des négociations de Genève est donc que l'Iran a obtenu une certaine légitimité internationale en tant que puissance parvenue au seuil nucléaire, ce qui inquiète profondément ses voisins régionaux, l'Arabie saoudite, l'Israël, la Turquie, l'Egypte, ainsi que les Etats du Golfe, petits et vulnérables.

Les hommes d'Etat occidentaux ont raison de se féliciter d'avoir évité une crise majeure dans l'immédiat. Mais ils ont tort de croire qu'ils ont mis un terme à la menace nucléaire iranienne. En effet, il serait naïf de croire qu'un accord définitif avec l'Iran sera conclu dans les six prochains mois : les diplomates chevronnés de l'Iran vont s'employer à ce que cela ne se produise pas.

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