美国的连败魔咒

耶路撒冷——鉴于当前形势,联合国安理会五大常任理事国加上德国(P5+1)与伊朗达成的日内瓦临时协议或许是遏制伊朗核计划可能的最好结果。美国及其西方盟国都不愿冒险动用武力,而不达成协议相当于默许伊朗随心所欲地获取核武器。

理想世界的处理方法应当是迫使伊朗完全放弃核计划,并将浓缩铀全部移交给外部大国掌控;但现实世界中这相当于痴人说梦。因此日内瓦会谈的结果是伊朗作为核国家取得了某种国际合法性,阿拉伯、以色列、土耳其、埃及和弱小的海湾国家因此而深感不安。

西方政治家庆幸避免了一场迫在眉睫的重大危机是对的。但认为伊朗核威胁已经解除却过于天真。事实上,认为能在六个月内与伊朗达成最终协议是幼稚的表现:伊朗的资深外交家们将确保这种情况不会发生。

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