Shinzo Abe at United Nations conference.

Politics

L’avenir du Japon de Shinzo Abe

Nov 2, 2015 Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

TOKYO – À l’heure où Shinzo Abe discute cette semaine au sommet de Séoul en compagnie de la présidente sud-coréenne Park Geun-hye et du Premier ministre chinois Li Keqiang, le Premier ministre japonais œuvre à la tête d’un pays que beaucoup à travers le monde sous-estiment aujourd’hui considérablement. Cette tendance sera très certainement ressentie lors du premier sommet des trois grandes puissances du nord-est asiatique depuis 2012.

Il y a une trentaine d’années, nombre d’observateurs formulaient un avis bien différent dans leur évaluation du Japon. Beaucoup d’Américains craignaient en effet de perdre la main après que le revenu par habitant du Japon ait dépassé celui des États-Unis. Le secteur manufacturier japonais fixait à l’époque la norme sur le plan international. Certains ouvrages annonçaient même une guerre contre une superpuissance japonaise nucléaire. Ces prévisions reposaient alors sur une extrapolation de l’impressionnante croissance économique japonaise d’après-guerre ; aujourd’hui, après plus de deux décennies de malaise, elles nous rappellent tout simplement le manque de fiabilité des projections linéaires.

Ce manque de pertinence demeure d’actualité. En réponse à une montée rapide de la Chine ainsi qu’à l’affirmation de son gouvernement communiste, l’actuelle croyance populaire nous dresse le portrait d’un Japon relégué au statut de pays d’importance secondaire – ce qui constitue à nouveau une erreur.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 12 Comments on this article

X C Feb 22, 2016

Islanders mantas...The danger is that it is so comfortable that it will look inward and prove the conventional wisdom right.
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William Pu Nov 8, 2015

Wow! Is China really so scary?
This article, as I read it, has nothing to do with Japan per se! No?
If China isn't so scary, to some, would any one in the west actually notice Japan?
Sneak attack and nukes make perfect friendships? Seriously!
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 6, 2015

No doubt Joseph S. Nye wants Shinzo Abe to succeed, and if Japan excels, its staunch ally, the US will benefit. But is Japan's "fate" in Abe's hands? Perhaps, for the moment!
Abe became prime minister for the second time in December 2012, because Japanese felt humiliated when China overtook their country as the world's second largest economy in February 2011. They needed a strong man to boost Japan's struggling economy, and to stand up to China following tense relations over territorial and historic disputes. When he was in office between September 2006 and July 2007, he was lauded for a high-level rapprochement with China.
During his second term Abe has made an effort to restore Japan’s standing as a "first-tier country" by implementing an economic stimulus package, called "Abenomics." But he will never be able to turn its clock back to the good old days of the 1980s, when Japan threatened to overtake the US as the world's largest economy. Nevertheless Nye still sees Japan's ability to outdo China, in terms of quality vis-à-vis quantity, despite flat growth. It's not far-fetched that China envies Japan's "highly sophisticated industry" and good quality of life.
No doubt with a rising and assertive Beijing that poses an obstacle to Washington's “pivot to Asia,” the US needs Japan to be a strong ally to impede China's growing economic and geopolitical power. Nye claims Japan's military has the technical know-how to "develop nuclear weapons very quickly", although its army may be smaller than China's. It's true that Japan's soft power has a stronger appeal across the globe and the government makes generous contributions to international institutions in form of humanitarian aid and development. By "reinterpreting Japan’s constitution" Abe has partially realised the dream of his hawkish grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who saw the pacifist constitution imposed by the US as a humiliation. He says Japan can now be a "normal" country and play a more active military role overseas.
Indeed, Abe faces many challenges - an aging population, a sluggish economy and an uncertain relationship with China and South Korea. As long as Abe does not come to terms with Japan's atrocities in history, the spectre of the past will always return to haunt future relations. This recent rapprochement may just be a sign of pragmatism, as China, Japan and South Korea need to stimulate growth at home. Japan's population continues to fall. Abe's "womenomics’ policy" may just be a wishful thinking, because sexism is still deeply entrenched in the Japanesse society. Indeed, "Japan is a successful, comfortable society, which has much to contribute to the world. The danger is that it is so comfortable that it will look inward and prove the conventional wisdom right."
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Thomas Müller Nov 4, 2015

Many pundits in the U.S. simply fail to notice or just simply ignore intangible values at the expense of ill-designed strategic benefits. Shinzo Abe, a grandson and an incarnation of a convicted WAR CRIMINAL Nobusuke Kishi, and the current member of Nippon Kaigi, an influential lobby of which the key mission is to spread and make the world believe there were no atrocities committed by Japan, has been threatening democracy in Japan (as has been evidenced by the recent handling of the illegal passing of the army bill) and has been reigniting strongly flawed nationalism through its puppet medias.

The only thing this guy has been doing ever since he became the prime minister was to lift the pacifist law set in stone and pressure China and South Korea on various fronts like territory, history and other areas where it needs to exert power to restore the “glorified” era, in which the country invaded Asia and the U.S. (please just don’t forget how many U.S. people died in Pearl Harbor). In the process, he only used the U.S. as a good excuse to get a leg up on his own agenda, which has been quite successful until now.

But we seriously have to think about the hidden costs of Japan’s remilitarization as a means of countering threats from China and highly unlikely nuclear attacks from North Korea. Sure, there are problems in the Southeast Asia Sea, but is it a good idea to let the old foes to counter this problem? Remember that these guys have killed 3m civilians in Nanking, but these guys are still manipulating or denying the history because it could make the Japanese people less hawkish and feminine (?), which are mentalities the right-wing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) would not want to instill into their people. It is quite surprising that LDP guys, who are right wing, hawkish, pro-war, pro-history revisionism and anti-China/Korea has never lost their majority in the parliament. This is unheard of in any democratic countries and questions many of us whether Japan is indeed a democratic country with freedom of speech. Recently, a college student, who protested against the military bill received a death threat from right-wing people. The society in Japan does not allow free speech and people are not able to express their views because they have to conform to the widespread right-wing sentiments that are controlling the Japanese society. Also, people are constantly threatened by Yakuza, a Japanese equivalent of Mafia, and it is known that Japanese politicians have ties with this criminal organization. In this sense, Japan’s political system is like Italy, which is fraught with corruption, but hugely more right wing and fascist. Also it has an opposite-Germany posture, given their constant visit to Yaskuni Srhine (a shrine where war criminals who committed murder, looting, organization of sex slaves and rape are commemorated) and manipulation of history textbooks, which is stirring unwanted tensions with its neighbor countries. While Germany has earned its trust through their actions, Japan is trying to earn trust through money and hypocrisy.

I will give that Abe has been very successful with his political agenda. However, can the same could be said for their economic policies? As opposed to his own agenda, inspired by a convicted WAR CRIMINAL Nobusuke Kishi, economic reforms were only secondary. Abenomics, while discussed widely in the media, has been nothing more than printing money. It’s an easy and flawed panacea, and the side effects of this will be only felt few years later. The other two arrows have been largely dormant compared to the BOJ’s busy printing press, because there have been no meaningful reforms.
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lt lee Nov 3, 2015

"Japan’s culture (both traditional and popular), overseas development assistance, and support of international institutions are impressive sources of soft power."
If Japan has real soft power and it is the third largest economy, how could Japan's underestimated?
All the above are potential for soft power yet to be realized. Simple reason: No many people would admire political leaders who worship war criminals. Abe sacrifies Japan's soft power for his own political gain.
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Richard Solomon Nov 3, 2015

Mr. Nye fails to clearly articulate the challenges Japan faces in its 'labor constraint.' Women do not play a more active role in the economy because of centuries of patriarchal cultural practices. Abe has failed to overcome other obstacles as well: the lack of adequate daycare facilities which could allow women with children to return to work, tax incentives which make it less beneficial for married women with children to work, and inflexible work standards which require 'successful' workers to put in 12+ hour days. No way a woman with children will work those kinds of hours!

Mr. Nye also fails to note that the labor constraints include the fact that a significant portion of workers in Japan, both men and women, are hired onto 'temporary, part time' jobs. Ie, they lack equal pay and job security. Young workers have little confidence to get married and start a family when they don't know if they'll be working at the same job in 2-3 years.

Abe has done nothing significant to change these two dynamics. He shows little inclination to take on these admittedly challenging obstacles. As Mr. Nye correctly notes his so called third arrow sits in its sheath.
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jagjeet sinha Nov 2, 2015

The goodwill that exists for Japan under Abe perhaps remains unparalleled - the future belongs to economics.
Superpowers confrontation, in any case, is not Japan's strategy - it will stand with America in most conceivable predicaments.
India gives Japan the economic advantages - that can be harnessed by India to scale up.
There isn't a greater win-win situation - for both.
With incumbency in India with Modi, Shinzo Abe will find few soulmates within G20 on the same wavelength.
A decade of strengthening is call both need - to cement an Asia, where hegemony and hubris can be history.
Agree with the author, Japan under Abe can shape Asia and the World.
Never underestimate both Japan and the pedigree of Shinzo Abe.
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Petey Bee Nov 2, 2015

Sounds like they're doing just fine. It boggles my mind why more people would be better.
- P. Kamath Nov 3, 2015
  
  Rising population is a curse. It boggles my mind when people even educated ones have no opinion about population bomb. Ever increasing population brings completion for food peaceful life, it is followed by corruption , violence and pollution. Destruction of wild life and land is behind it.
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- Jason H Nov 3, 2015
  
  No asylum seekers and practically no foreign immigration. They're society is safe and stable. It's something the west should consider looking into a bit more. Controlled immigration is ok but overwhelming immigration is not sustainable as can be seen in Europe right now.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
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Michael Public Nov 2, 2015

"While China has nuclear weapons and more soldiers, Japan’s military is better equipped in some areas (and obviously has the technological capacity to develop nuclear weapons very quickly)."

China and Japan are never going to war. If they ever did, likely the World would not survive as America will be dragged into it and the end result will be a launch of nuclear weapons. Discussing troop strengths is therefore a moot point.
- Jason H Nov 3, 2015
  
  China's military is vastly untrained and disciplined. When the MH370 plane crash happened the Chinese military's couldn't even navigate to the correct airport in Perth on Australia's west coast. Troop numbers of 100:1 would be needed until they pick their game up. I think China wants a test run on the South China Sea island because it has nothing to lose and everything to gain from an island that's not hers she can test out the army and others responses. The art of war explains a lot if this as I'm sure American generals would understand I hope.
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L’avenir du Japon de Shinzo Abe

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