Shinzo Abe at United Nations conference. UN ISDR/Flickr

安倍日本的命运

东京——当安倍晋三本周在汉城与韩国总统朴槿惠和中国总理李克强坐在一起时,全球很多人现在都严重低估了他所领导的这个国家。在三大东北亚强国2012年来首次首脑会议上,人们肯定会认识到这样的状况。

三十年前,许多人都在评价日本时犯了严重的错误。在日本人均收入超过美国后,许多美国人担心美国会被日本拉下。日本制造业树立了国际标准;有些书甚至预言与超级核大国日本最终战争的爆发。这种观点源自日本令人印象深刻的战后经济增长;如今,经过二十多年的经济不景气,当年的推断只能提醒我们线性预测是危险的。

这种危险性现在依然存在着。面对中国的快速崛起和共产党领导人的自信,目前的传统智慧同样错误地将日本描绘成一个次要国家。

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