La promesa de la Abe-economía

TOKIO – El programa del primer ministro japonés Shinzo Abe para la recuperación económica de su país ha dado lugar a un aumento de la confianza interna. Pero ¿hasta qué punto puede la “Abe-economía” atribuirse el mérito?

Curiosamente, un vistazo más cercano al desempeño de Japón durante la última década sugiere pocas razones para que tener un sentimiento bajista persistente. De hecho, en términos de crecimiento del producto por trabajador empleado, a Japón le ha ido muy bien desde inicios del nuevo siglo. Con una fuerza laboral en contracción, la estimación estándar para Japón en el año 2012 – es decir, antes de la Abe-economía – fue que la producción por trabajador empleado creció en una tasa interanual del 3,08%. Ese crecimiento es mucho más robusto que el de los Estados Unidos, donde la producción por trabajador creció sólo un 0,37% el año pasado, y mucho más fuerte del de Alemania, donde se redujo en un 0,25%.

No obstante, como muchos japoneses correctamente perciben, la Abe-economía sólo puede ayudar a la recuperación del país. Abe está haciendo lo que muchos economistas (incluyéndome entre ellos) han estado pidiendo en los EE.UU. y Europa: un programa integral que implique políticas monetarias, fiscales y estructurales. Abe compara este enfoque a sostener tres flechas – si se las sostienen de forma separada, se puede doblar cada una de ellas; si se las sostiene juntas, no se puede doblar ninguna.

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