Обещание абеномики

ТОКИО. Программа премьер-министра Японии Синдзо Абэ по восстановлению экономики своей страны привела к всплеску доверия внутри страны. Но какого уровня доверия заслуживает «Абэномика»?

Интересно, что пристальный взгляд на развитие Японии в течение последних трех десятилетий дает мало оснований для длительных пессимистичных настроений. Действительно, по показателям роста выработки на одного занятого работника Япония имеет довольно хорошие показатели с начала тысячелетия. При сокращающейся рабочей силе стандартная оценка в Японии в 2012 году – то есть до абэномики – показывала рост выработки на одного занятого работника на 3,08% в годовом исчислении. То есть этот показатель значительно лучше, нежели в Соединенных Штатах, где в прошлом году выработка на одного занятого работника выросла всего на 0,37%, и намного лучше, чем в Германии, где она сократилась на 0,25%.

Тем не менее, как правильно понимают многие японцы, абэномика может помочь в восстановлении страны. Абэ делает то, к чему призывали многие экономисты (и я в том числе) в США и Европе: комплексную программу, включающую в себя кредитно-денежную, налогово-бюджетную и структурную политику. Абэ сравнивает такой подход с тремя стрелами: каждая по отдельности может быть согнута, а взятые вместе ‑ нет.

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