A promessa da “Abenomia”

TÓQUIO - O programa do primeiro-ministro japonês, Shinzo Abe, para a recuperação económica do seu país originou um aumento na confiança nacional. Mas até que ponto pode a “Abenomia” ser digna de crédito?

Curiosamente, um olhar atento sobre o desempenho do Japão durante a década passada dá pouca razão ao persistente sentimento baixista. Na verdade, em termos de crescimento do produto por cada trabalhador assalariado, o Japão tem feito um óptimo trabalho desde a viragem do século. Com uma mão-de-obra acanhada, o cálculo estandardizado para o Japão em 2012 - ou seja, antes da “Abenomia” - colocava o crescimento per trabalhador assalariado nos 3,08% ao ano. É um valor consideravelmente mais robusto do que o dos Estados Unidos, onde a produção por trabalhador cresceu apenas 0,37% no ano passado, e muito mais sólido do que o da Alemanha, onde diminuiu 0,25%.

No entanto, e tal como muitos japoneses sentem de forma justa, a “Abenomia” só pode ajudar na recuperação do país. Abe está a fazer o que muitos economistas (inclusive eu) têm apelado na Europa e nos EUA: um programa abrangente que implique políticas monetárias, fiscais e estruturais. Abe compara esta abordagem ao acto de segurar três setas - se dominar uma de cada vez, podem-se dobrar, se dominar as três ao mesmo tempo, nenhuma dobra.

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