La promessa di Abenomics

TOKYO – La strategia di ripresa economica del Primo Ministro giapponese, Shinzo Abe, ha portato ad un aumento della fiducia a livello nazionale. Ma fino a che punto l’ “Abenomics” può assumersene il merito?

E’ interessante come uno sguardo più attento alla performance del Giappone nell’ultimo decennio dimostri che non c’è ragione di mantenere una propensione negativa. Infatti, in termini di crescita di rendimento per lavoratore, il Giappone ha mantenuto una buona prestazione sin dalla fine del secolo scorso. Con una forza lavoro in diminuzione, le stime standard relative al Giappone nel 2012 (ovvero prima di Abenomics) indicavano una crescita del rendimento per lavoratore pari al 3,08% su base annuale. Si tratta di una crescita ben più consistente di quella degli Stati Uniti dove, l’anno scorso, il rendimento per lavoratore è cresciuto dello 0,37%, e ben più forte della Germania dove ha subito una contrazione dello 0,25%.

Tuttavia, come percepiscono giustamente molti giapponesi, la strategia Abenomics non può far altro che aiutare la ripresa del paese. Il Primo Ministro Abe sta facendo quello che molti economisti (me incluso) hanno consigliato a gran voce a Stati Uniti ed Europa, ovvero un programma esaustivo con politiche monetarie, fiscali e strutturali. Abe paragona quest’approccio a tre frecce: se prese una per una possono essere piegate, ma tenute insieme non è possibile farlo.

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