Das Versprechen der Abenomics

TOKIO: Das Programm des japanischen Ministerpräsidenten Shinzo Abe zur wirtschaftlichen Erholung seines Landes (auch als „Abenomics“ bekannt) hat zu einem steilen Anstieg der Zuversicht in Japan geführt. Aber in welchem Umfang ist dies gerechtfertigt?

Interessanterweise legt ein genauerer Blick auf die Wirtschaftsleistung Japans während des vergangenen Jahrzehnts nahe, dass wenig Grund für Pessimismus besteht. Tatsächlich hat sich Japan, was das Produktionswachstum pro Beschäftigtem angeht, seit der Jahrhundertwende recht gut entwickelt, auch wenn Japans Erwerbsbevölkerung schrumpft. Die gängige Schätzung für 2012 – also vor „Abenomics“ – belief sich auf ein Produktionswachstum pro Beschäftigtem von 3,08% gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Dies ist deutlich mehr als in den USA, wo das Produktionswachstum pro Beschäftigtem im vergangenen Jahr nur 0,37% betrug und erheblich besser als in Deutschland, wo es um 0,25% zurückging.

Trotzdem kann Abenomics, wie viele Japaner zu Recht spüren, durchaus zur Erholung des Landes beitragen. Abe tut, was viele Ökonomen (darunter auch ich) für die USA und Europa fordern: Er setzt ein umfassendes, geld-, fiskal- und strukturpolitische Strategien beinhaltendes Programm um. Abe hat diesem Ansatz mit drei Pfeilen verglichen, die man in der Hand halte: Jeweils für sich lasse sich jeder davon verbiegen, zusammen jedoch keiner.

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