De belofte van 'Abenomics'

TOKIO – Het programma van de Japanse premier Shinzo Abe voor het economisch herstel van zijn land heeft geleid tot het opbloeien van het binnenlandse vertrouwen. Maar in welke mate kan de zogenoemde “Abenomics” met de eer gaan strijken?

Interessant genoeg biedt een nadere analyse van de Japanse prestaties van de afgelopen tien jaar weinig redenen voor een aanhoudend pessimistisch sentiment. In termen van de groei van de productie per werknemer heeft Japan het sinds de millenniumwisseling eigenlijk heel goed gedaan. Met een krimpende beroepsbevolking luidde de standaardverwachting voor Japan in 2012 – dat wil zeggen, vóór Abenomics – dat de productie per werknemer op jaarbasis met 3,08% zou groeien. Dat is aanzienlijk beter dan in de Verenigde Staten, waar de productie per werknemer vorig jaar met slechts 0,37% is toegenomen, en veel beter dan in Duitsland, waar zij met 0,25% is geslonken.

Niettemin kan Abenomics, zoals veel Japanners terecht vermoeden, het herstel van het land alleen maar bevorderen. Abe is met iets gekomen waartoe veel economen (waaronder ik) de Verenigde Staten en Europa reeds lange tijd oproepen: een samenhangend programma van monetaire, fiscale en structurele beleidsmaatregelen. Abe vergelijkt zijn aanpak met het afschieten van drie pijlen – ieder op zich kan zijn doel missen, maar als ze samenwerken, gebeurt dat niet.

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