Cambio en la “gran partida” afgana

TEL AVIV – Así, que el Presidente Barack Obama ha decidido “no cambiar de rumbo”. El obstinado grito de guerra del gobierno de Bush en el Iraq ha vencido ahora con el aumento preparado por Obama de otros 30.000 soldados en el Afganistán. Según habían advertido los partidarios del aumento, una victoria talibán allí radicalizaría toda la región y tendría un efecto de dominó, pues se desencadenarían insurgencias islámicas en toda el Asia central. Si los Estados Unidos hubieran comunicado su retirada, Al Qaeda, inextricablemente entrelazada con los talibanes, se declararía también vencedora.

Pero la victoria para las fuerzas de la yijad no es la única hipótesis posible. Al Qaeda, por ejemplo, se ha convertido ahora en una franquicia mundial cuyas capacidades ya no dependen de su base afgana. De hecho, desconectada como está del comercio de la heroína, que ha convertido a los talibanes en una colosal empresa económica, Al Qaeda padece una clara decadencia financiera. Tampoco está claro que la retirada de la OTAN permitiera inevitablemente la toma del poder por los talibanes. Una hipótesis más probable es una fragmentación del país por las líneas divisorias étnicas.

En realidad, la cuestión de qué hacer con el Afganistán tiene que ver con la antigua vocación de la “carga del hombre blanco”, que nunca parece morir, por costosa y engañosa que sea, pues, aun cuando las calamidades predichas por los profetas de la fatalidad sean la hipótesis más probable, ¿por qué constituyen una amenaza mayor para Occidente que para potencias regionales como la India, China, Rusia y el Irán (para quien los suníes talibanes son una peligrosa amenaza ideológica)? Ninguno de esos países está pensando en la posibilidad de una solución militar para la crisis afgana.

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