阿富汗的“大博弈”发生转移

特拉维夫­——于是巴拉克·奥巴马总统决定了要“坚持到底”。奥巴马计划在阿富汗增兵三万人,这意味着布什政府时期在伊拉克对战争的顽固呼吁现在成功了。增兵倡导派警告说,塔利班在当地的胜利将导致整个地区的极端化,并且制造多米诺骨牌效应,中亚地区会爆发伊斯兰暴动。如果美国示意撤军,和塔利班息息相关的阿尔卡伊达也将获胜。

然而杰哈德武装的胜利并不是唯一可能发生的事情。例如,阿尔卡伊达现在已经变得全球瞩目,而该组织的能力不再依靠它位于阿富汗的基地。实际上,阿尔卡伊达和海洛英交易无关,财政上显然已经式微,而海洛英交易则把塔利班变成了经济方面备受关注的庞然大物。北约的撤军是否会不可避免地导致塔利班接掌政权,这一点尚不清楚。更有可能发生的是,国家解体,族群分裂。

其实,在阿富汗如何行事和“白人责任”的老行当相关。无论这个行当是如何代价高昂,心口不一,它却从来没有消亡过。即使悲观者们预言的灾祸最有可能发生,为什么这些灾难对西方国家的威胁比它们对印度,中国,俄罗斯,伊朗(对该国来说,逊尼派的塔利班将引发意识形态上的危险挑战)这样的地区强国造成的威胁更大?上述国家中没有一个考虑要捷足军事手段解决阿富汗危机。

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