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El regreso de la política fiscal

NUEVA YORK – Desde la crisis financiera global de 2008, la política monetaria ha sido la principal encargada de sostener la demanda agregada, estimular el crecimiento y prevenir la deflación en las economías desarrolladas. La política fiscal, por su parte, se vio limitada por grandes déficits presupuestarios y deudas públicas en aumento, que incluso obligaron a muchos países a implementar medidas de austeridad para evitar que se volvieran impagables. Ocho años después, llegó la hora de hacer un relevo.

Los bancos centrales se vieron forzados a adoptar políticas monetarias cada vez más heterodoxas porque eran la única alternativa disponible para el estímulo económico. Empezaron recortando los tipos de interés a cero, y más tarde introdujeron la estrategia de dar indicios de sus planes futuros (forward guidance), con un compromiso de mantener las tasas de referencia en cero por tiempo prolongado.

A continuación, los bancos centrales de los países avanzados añadieron la flexibilización cuantitativa (FC), mediante la compra de grandes volúmenes de títulos públicos a largo plazo para reducir sus intereses. También iniciaron la flexibilización crediticia (compra de activos privados para reducir el costo de endeudamiento del sector privado). Más cerca en el tiempo, algunas autoridades monetarias (entre ellas el Banco Central Europeo, el Banco de Japón y los bancos centrales de varios países europeos) llevaron los tipos de interés al terreno negativo.

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