Триумф Шарона

Из-за инсульта, случившегося с премьер-министром Израиля Ариэль Шароном, в политической жизни Израиля вновь настала неразбериха. По крайней мере, создаётся такое впечатление. Шарон считался безоговорочным лидером на выборах, которые должны были состояться в марте. Для участия в этих выборах он создал под своим началом партию «Кадима» (т.е. «Вперёд») и тем самым смог привлечь на свою сторону ключевые фигуры из Партии Труда (левые) и из партии «Ликуд» (правые). Но станет ли в действительности его уход из общественной жизни настолько дестабилизирующим, как утверждают наблюдатели?

Вне всяких сомнений, именно личность Шарона принесла партии «Кадима» высокую популярность. Консерватизм и национализм позволили ему укрепить свою популярность среди правых, а новая стратегия безопасности и решение о полном выводе поселений из сектора Газа принесла ему сторонников, придерживающихся левых взглядов. Проще говоря, Шарон был идеальным центристским кандидатом: лидером, умело сочетавшим мирные и воинственные подходы к внешней политике.

Однако преждевременный уход Шарона из политики никоим образом не может повернуть вспять фундаментальные политические и стратегические реформы, инициатором которых он являлся. В краткосрочной перспективе ожидается, что без Шарона «Кадима» наберёт меньшее количество голосов, но некоторые избиратели останутся верными этой партии из сострадания к её перенесшему инсульт лидеру. Опросы действительно показывают, что данная партия может, несмотря ни на что, победить на выборах.

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