Sharons Triumph

Der schwere Schlaganfall des israelischen Ministerpräsidenten Ariel Sharon hat die israelische Politik wieder einmal in Turbulenzen gebracht. So jedenfalls hat es den Anschein. Sharon galt bereits als sicherer Sieger der für März geplanten Wahlen, für die er seine eigene Partei Kadima (Vorwärts) gegründet hatte, in die auch Führungspersönlichkeiten der linken Arbeiterpartei und des rechten Likud-Blocks eintraten. Aber wird sein Abschied aus dem öffentlichen Leben wirklich derart destabilisierende Auswirkungen haben, wie viele Beobachter meinen?

Natürlich war es Sharons persönliche Zugkraft, die Kadima so beliebt machte. Seine konservative und nationale Reputation sicherte ihm einerseits Popularität auf Seiten der Rechten, während ihm seine neue Sicherheitsstrategie – einschließlich des vollen Rückzuges aus dem Gazastreifen – Unterstützung von links einbrachte. Kurzum, Sharon war der ideale Kandidat der Mitte. Eine Führungspersönlichkeit, die den Ansatz der Tauben mit dem von den Falken gewünschten Ergebnis unter einen Hut brachte.

Und dennoch haben sich durch Sharons vorzeitigen Abschied aus der Politik die von ihm initiierten fundamentalen politischen und strategischen Umstellungen keinesfalls verändert. Kurzfristig wird die Kadima ohne Sharon an der Spitze zwar Stimmen einbüßen, aber manche Wähler werden aus Mitgefühl für den erkrankten Parteichef ihre Stimme der Kadima geben. Tatsächlich zeigen Meinungsumfragen, dass die Partei trotzdem eine Stimmenmehrheit erringen könnte.

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