Šaronův triumf

Závažná mozková příhoda izraelského ministerského předsedy Ariela Šarona uvrhla izraelskou politiku opět do vřavy. Nebo se to tak alespoň jeví. Šaron byl považován za jistého vítěze plánovaných březnových voleb, do nichž zformoval svou vlastní stranu Kadima (Vpřed), kam přilákal vůdčí osobnosti z levicové Strany práce i z pravicového Likudu. Bude ale jeho odchod z veřejného života skutečně tak destabilizující, jak mnozí pozorovatelé naznačují?

Ovšemže, bylo to právě Šaronovo osobní kouzlo, co Kadimě zajistilo tolik popularity. Jeho skvělé konzervativní a vlastenecké vysvědčení mu udržovalo oblibu na pravici, zatímco nová bezpečnostní strategie – mimo jiné úplné stažení z pásma Gazy – mu získala příznivce na levici. Krátce, Šaron byl ideálním středovým kandidátem: lídr, který sladil holubičí přístup s jestřábí ostražitostí.

Přesto Šaronův předčasný odchod v žádném případě nezvrátil zásadní politické a strategické změny, které inicioval. Z krátkodobého hlediska platí, že ačkoli Kadima bez Šarona u kormidla získá méně hlasů, někteří voliči se nechají strhnout soucitem s postiženým lídrem. Vskutku, průzkumy ukazují, že strana by stále mohla skončit jako první.

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