Façonner l’économie post-carbone

NEW YORK – A la fin de cette année, les représentants des 170 nations qui ont signé la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques se retrouveront à Copenhague pour finaliser, c’est l’objectif, les négociations sur une nouvelle riposte planétaire au changement et réchauffement du climat. Leurs efforts, s’ils aboutissent, mèneront à une nouvelle donne mondiale sur la réduction des émissions délétères de gaz à effet de serre, dans quelle mesure et à quel moment. La convention entrerait en vigueur en 2012, à l’expiration du Protocole de Kyoto.

L’institut McKinsey a étudié l’efficacité et le coût de plus de 200 mécanismes de réduction des émissions de carbone (depuis une meilleure utilisation des voitures à la force nucléaire en passant par une meilleure isolation des bâtiments et une meilleure gestion de la forêt). Cette recherche montre que seule une action planétaire concertée permettra d’atteindre les paliers estimés nécessaires par la communauté scientifique pour éviter de désastreuses conséquences pour le climat. Notre analyse détaillée, menée dans 21 pays et régions sur deux ans, montre que chaque région et secteur a un rôle à jouer. Si vous n’êtes pas encore effrayé, imaginez ce qui suit : si nous retardons notre action, ne serait-ce que de quelques années, nous n’atteindrons probablement pas les objectifs fixés, malgré la chute temporaire des émissions de gaz associée à une activité économique ralentie dans le court terme.

La bonne nouvelle est que nous pouvons y parvenir, nous pouvons nous le permettre, et ce sans restreindre la croissance. La dernière version de la courbe McKinsey du coût de la réduction du carbone dans le monde met en évidence des opportunités de stabilisation des émissions d’ici à 2030 aux niveaux de 1990, ou à 50 % de moins que la courbe correspondant à  la « marche habituelle » des affaires.

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