打造后碳时代的经济

纽约——今年年底,《联合国气候变化框架公约》170个缔约国代表将在哥本哈根会晤,希望为达成对全球变暖和气候变化全新国际对策进行最后的谈判努力。如果取得成功,有关如何削减有害的温室气体排放、削减多少、何时削减的一份全球协议将是他们谈判努力的核心问题。这份协议将于2012年生效,届时目前生效的《京都议定书》也将同时终止。

麦肯锡公司进行的200多种降低碳排放机制的成本效益调查——从提高汽车效率到核能源利用,再到加强建筑物保温和森林管理——均表明只有协同一致的全球行动才能确保减排工作达到科学界认定的避免气候变化灾难性后果的必须水准。我们耗时两年在21个国家和地区进行的细致分析表明所有地区和行业都必须在这当中发挥作用。如果这还不够让人心惊胆战,那么设想一下这样的后果:哪怕我们延迟几年时间采取行动,都有可能无法实现既定的目标,就算近期经济活动减少导致碳排放量暂时下降也改变不了这样的结果。

好消息是我们可以实现既定的目标,我们具备这样的实力,而且可以在不影响发展的前提下完成减排任务。麦肯锡最新版本的全球二氧化碳减排成本曲线让人们看到了截止2030年将排放稳定在1990年水平、或者低于“一切照常”趋势线50%的机会。

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