Еще семь лет тяжелых времен?

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН. Большая часть разговоров после экономического симпозиума в Джексон-Хоул в августе 2010 года, на котором присутствовали многие руководители центральных банков и экономисты со всего мира, была посвящена представленному там документу, который дал тяжелые долгосрочные оценки будущего мировых экономик.

Документ «После падения» был составлен экономистами Кармен Рейнхарт и Винсентом Рейнхартом. Их работа опирается на недавно вышедшую книгу, которую Кармен Рейнхарт написала в соавторстве с Кеннетом Рогоффом, под названием «На этот раз все будет по-другому: восемь веков финансовой недальновидности».

В соответствии с работой Рейнхартов, если провести сравнение с десятилетием, которое предшествует финансовым кризисам, наподобие того что начался три года назад, «рост ВВП и цены на жилье значительно ниже, а безработица выше» в последующем «десятилетнем окне». Таким образом, можно сделать вывод, что перед нами еще примерно семь лет тяжелых времен.

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