Sieben weitere schwere Jahre?

NEW HAVEN – Im August 2010 wurde in Jackson Hole das Wirtschaftssymposium der US-Notenbank abgehalten, das von vielen Zentralbankern und Ökonomen der Welt besucht wurde. In vielen der Diskussionen, die in die Öffentlichkeit drangen, ging es um eine dort vorgestellte Publikation, die die langfristige Zukunft der Weltwirtschaft pessimistisch bewertete.

Geschrieben wurde die Publikation „After the Fall“ (auf Englisch) von den Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern Carmen Reinhart und Vincent Reinhart. Ihre Arbeit stützt sich auf ein unlängst erschienenes Buch von Carmen Reinhart und Kenneth Rogoff mit dem Titel Dieses Mal ist alles anders: Acht Jahrhunderte Finanzkrisen.

Vergleicht man das Jahrzehnt vor Finanzkrisen wie der, die vor drei Jahren begann, mit dem Jahrzehnt danach, so sind laut der Publikation der Reinharts das BIP-Wachstum und die Immobilienpreise im auf die Krise folgenden „Zehn-Jahres-Fenster“ wesentlich niedriger und die Arbeitslosigkeit ist höher. Daraus könnte man schließen, dass wir weiteren sieben schlechten Jahren entgegensehen.

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