Ještě sedm let těžkostí?

NEW HAVEN – Velká část diskusí, které vyplynuly z ekonomického sympozia, jež v srpnu 2010 proběhlo v americkém Jackson Hole, se týkala studie, která byla na sympoziu uvedena a předložila prachmizerné hodnocení budoucnosti světových ekonomik.

Tuto studii, nazvanou „After the Fall“ (Po pádu), vytvořili ekonomové Carmen Reinhartová a Vincent Reinhart. Jejich práce čerpá z nedávné knihy This Time Is Different (Tentokrát je to jiné) s podtitulem Osm století finanční bláhovosti, již Carmen Reinhartová napsala společně s Kennethem Rogoffem.

Studie manželů Reinhartových říká, že ve srovnání s dekádou předcházející finanční krizi, jako je ta, která započala před třemi lety, platí během „desetileté lhůty“ po krizi, že „růst HDP a ceny nemovitostí jsou výrazně nižší a nezaměstnanost zase vyšší“. Dalo by se tedy dedukovat, že nás čeká ještě dalších sedm let těžkostí.

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