Dean Rohrer

不会让钱包“大出血”的服务

发自纽约——有条著名的经济学理论认为服务(例如医疗和教育)的成本要比商品(比如食品,燃油和机械)成本更容易上涨。这看上去挺有道理,因为全球各地的人们都被当前不断上涨的医疗和学费压得喘不过气了——何况其逐年上涨幅度似乎比总体通胀更高。但有赖于当前的信息和通信技术革命,医疗,教育和其他服务的成本将有可能大幅下跌。

服务成本和商品成本的比较其实取决于生产力。如果农民的食品生产能力大幅提高而教师的教育水平只有轻微上升,那么食物成本相对于教育成本来说就会下降。此外参与农业生产的人口也会趋向下降,因为满足全国食品需求所要求的农民数量更少了。

我们已经见证了这个长期模式:商品生产者占劳动者总量的比例不断减少,同时商品成本相对于服务成本也有所下降。在1950年的美国大概4%的人从事农业,38%从事工业(包括采矿,建筑和制造),58%从事服务业。到2010年时上述比例分别转化为约2%,17%和81%。与此同时,医疗和学费成本大幅飙升,其他服务成本也有所上升。

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