¿Negociaciones serias o confrontación ardiente con Irán?

Berlín – Durante dos semanas, parecía que el régimen iraní finalmente había recibido el mensaje de que, si sigue adelante con su programa nuclear, el resultado probable es una confrontación militar grave. De hecho, hubo declaraciones y señales interesantes –y nunca oídas previamente- desde Teherán que sugerían una mayor voluntad de iniciar negociaciones sobre el programa nuclear de Irán y asuntos de seguridad regional. Y la decisión de Estados Unidos de enviar al subsecretario de Estado William Burns a una reunión con el principal negociador nuclear de Irán sugiere que esas señales están siendo tomadas en serio.

Pero en la reciente muestra de poderío militar con pruebas de cohetes y el rechazo de un acuerdo por parte del presidente iraní, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, y su ministro de Relaciones Exteriores demuestran que el liderazgo del país está seriamente dividido respecto de la línea estratégica que debería perseguir Irán.

Los líderes de Irán todavía albergan el concepto equivocado de que las amenazas israelíes contra sus instalaciones nucleares son una expresión de las dificultades internas del gobierno del primer ministro Ehud Olmert. Esto es lisa y llanamente un error. El gobierno de Olmert tiene serios problemas, pero no son la causa de que la situación entre Israel e Irán esté llegando a un punto límite.

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