Beginnt sich der Iran zu bewegen?

In Teheran scheint die Botschaft angekommen zu sein, dass es mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit militärisch Ernst wird, wenn der Iran mit seinem Atomprogramm fortfährt. Zumindest gibt es aus Teheran interessante, ja so bis dahin noch nicht gehörte Äußerungen und Signale, die auf eine verstärkte Bereitschaft zu ernsthaften Verhandlungen über das iranische Atomprogramm und regionale Sicherheitsfragen schließen lassen. Und Amerikas Entscheidung, den Unterstaatssekretär William Burns zu einer Sitzung mit Irans oberstem Atomunterhändler zu schicken, legt nahe, dass diese Signale ernst genommen werden.

Zwar unterliegt die iranische Führung noch immer der Fehleinschätzung, dass die israelischen Drohungen Ausdruck der innenpolitischen Probleme der Regierung Olmert seien, was schlicht falsch ist. Die Regierung Olmert hat große Probleme, aber diese sind nicht die Ursache für die Zuspitzung der Situation zwischen Israel und dem Iran.

Denn in der Frage einer möglichen iranischen Nuklearbewaffnung und regionalen Hegemonie des Iran gib es in Israel einen überparteilichen Konsens von links bis rechts. Dieser Konsens besagt, dass eine mögliche iranische Nuklearbewaffnung mit allen Mitteln rechtzeitig zu verhindern ist, wenn es nicht zuvor zu einer diplomatischen Lösung kommt. Und in Saudi-Arabien und einigen anderen arabischen Staaten sieht man dies hinter verschlossenen Türen genau so.

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