مفاوضات جادة أم مواجهات ساخنة مع إيران؟

برلين ـ بدا الأمر طيلة أسبوعين كاملين وكأن النظام في إيران أدرك أخيراً الرسالة وفَهِم أنه إذا ما استمر في ملاحقة برنامجه النووي فمن المرجح أن يؤدي ذلك إلى مواجهة عسكرية خطيرة. والحقيقة أننا سمعنا تصريحات مشوقة ـ لم نسمع لها مثيلاً من قبل ـ وإشارات من طهران أوحت برغبة متزايدة في البدء في المفاوضات بشأن برنامج إيران النووي والقضايا الأمنية الإقليمية. وكان القرار الذي اتخذته أميركا بإرسال نائب وزير خارجيتها وليم بيرنز للاجتماع بكبير المفاوضين النوويين الإيرانيين بمثابة التأكيد على استقبال العالم لهذه الإشارات بجدية.

بيد أن استعراض العضلات العسكري الأخير واختبارات الصواريخ ورفض الرئيس الإيراني محمود أحمدي نجاد ووزير خارجيته إبداء أي قدر من التعاون، كل ذلك يؤكد أن القيادات الإيرانية منقسمة إلى حد خطير بشأن الخط الإستراتيجي الذي يتعين على إيران أن تسير عليه.

فما زالت القيادات الإيرانية تعتنق تصوراً مغلوطاً بأن التهديدات الإسرائيلية ضد منشآتها النووية يعبر عن المصاعب الداخلية التي تواجهها حكومة رئيس الوزراء إيهود أولميرت . وهذا خطأ واضح. لا شك أن حكومة أولميرت تواجه مشاكل خطيرة، إلا أن هذه المشاكل ليست السبب وراء تَعَقُد الموقف بين إسرائيل وإيران.

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