Nuevo estancamiento de Rusia

PARÍS – A principios de noviembre, el gobierno ruso dio a conocer su última previsión macroeconómica. No debe de haber sido una decisión fácil: mientras que el presidente Vladimir Putin y su gobierno hicieron campaña en 2012 con la promesa de que la economía rusa crecería entre 5% y 6% por año durante su mandato de seis años, ahora se espera que la tasa de crecimiento apenas promedie el 2,8% de 2013 a 2020.

El ministro de Desarrollo Económico, Alexei Ulyukaev, explícitamente admitió que alcanzar los objetivos planteados por Putin “llevará más tiempo”. En algunos casos, eso significa mucho más tiempo. Por ejemplo, en mayo de 2012, Putin prometió aumentar la productividad laboral de Rusia en un 50% para 2018; la perspectiva actual no prevé este desenlace ni siquiera en 2025.

Para los observadores independientes, el pronóstico lúgubre del ministerio no es una sorpresa. A juzgar por los bajos precios bursátiles y los altos niveles de salida de capitales, los inversores ya apostaban a que no habría altas tasas de crecimiento. Ahora Putin y el primer ministro Dmitry Medvedev también son pesimistas. Medvedev, que públicamente había pronosticado un crecimiento anual del 5% en enero, les dijo a inversores extranjeros en octubre que la tasa de crecimiento de este año no superaría el 2%.

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