Russlands neue Stagnation

PARIS – Anfang November veröffentlichte die russische Regierung ihre jüngste makroökonomische Prognose. Das war bestimmt keine leichte Entscheidung: Obwohl Präsident Wladimir Putin und seine Regierung im Jahr 2012 mit dem Versprechen warben, die russische Wirtschaft würde während seiner 6 Jahre dauernden Amtszeit jährlich um 5 bis 6 Prozent wachsen, wird nun lediglich mit einer Wachstumsrate von durchschnittlich 2,8 Prozent in den Jahren von 2013 bis 2020 gerechnet.

Der Minister für Wirtschaftsentwicklung, Alexej Uljukajew, gab unumwunden zu, dass es „länger dauern“ werde, Putins Ziele zu erreichen. In manchen Fällen bedeutet dies wohl viel länger. So versprach Putin beispielsweise im Mai 2012, Russlands Arbeitsproduktivität bis zum Jahr 2018 um 50 Prozent steigern zu wollen. In der aktuellen Prognose ist ein derartiger Wert nicht einmal bis 2025 vorgesehen.

Für unabhängige Beobachter kommt diese düstere Prognose des Ministeriums nicht überraschend. An den niedrigen Aktienkursen und hohen Kapitalabflüssen war ohnehin abzulesen, dass die Investoren bereits mit niedrigeren Wachstumsraten rechneten. Mittlerweile sind auch Putin und Premierminister Dmitri Medwedew pessimistisch. Medwedew, der noch im Januar öffentlich ein jährliches Wachstum von 5 Prozent prognostizierte, teilte ausländischen Anlegern im Oktober mit, dass die Wachstumsrate in diesem Jahr nicht über 2 Prozent hinausgehen werde.

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