La vía imperial de Putin a la ruina económica

PARÍS – El debate sobre Crimea ya no está centrado en el derecho internacional: el Presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, ha reconocido públicamente que no se siente vinculado por él y no le importa que el resto del mundo considere ilegales las acciones de Rusia. Lo que no está claro es si la economía de Rusia puede soportar la carga de los objetivos de Putin en Ucrania.

Independientemente de la reacción de Occidente ante la crisis de Crimea, el daño para Rusia será inmenso. En primer lugar, hay que contar los costos directos de las operaciones militares y del apoyo al Gobierno del régimen crimeano y su terriblemente ineficiente economía (que lleva años profundamente subvencionada por el Gobierno de Ucrania). Dada la incertidumbre que rodea el futuro estatuto de Crimea, dichos costos resultan difíciles de calcular, si bien lo más probable es que asciendan a un total de varios miles de millones de dólares al año.

El costo directo de esa magnitud equivale al 0,5 por ciento del PIB de Rusia. Auque no se trata de una cifra trivial, Rusia puede sufragarlo. Este país acaba de gastar 50.000 millones de dólares en los Juegos Olímpico de Sochi y se propone gastar aún más para la Copa del Mundo de 2018. Estaba dispuesto a prestar 15.000 millones de dólares al gobierno del ex Presidente de Ucrania Viktor Yanukóvich y proporcionarle 8.000 millones de dólares al año en subvenciones del gas.

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