Дилемма Путина

ПАРИЖ – Многие критики утверждают, что санкции, введенные против России за ее действия в Украине являются неэффективными, потому что они слишком ограничены масштабом и сферой действия. Кроме того, санкции позволяют Президенту Владимиру Путину винить Запад в внутренних проблемах России. В самом деле, некоторые из сторонников Путина в России приветствуют санкции и считают их средством возобновления русской автаркии - и, таким образом, стратегической независимости от Запада.

Эти аргументы не правдивы. Хотя санкции не подкреплены Китаем, они уже создают мощное воздействие на экономику, а ожидание того, что они будут прогрессировать дальше - это огромная проблема для инвесторов и правительства России. Полная автаркия, тем временем, будет означать резкое сокращение российских стандартов жизни - фундамент внутренней поддержки для Путина.

Последние санкции являются беспрецедентными. Европейский союз зашел еще дальше, чем США. Воздействие российских рынков отличается среди стран ЕС, а также между ЕС и США. Но, после падения рейса Malaysia Airlines 17, Россия больше не может придерживаться стратегии «разделяй и властвуй», которая пользуется этими различиями в ее интересах.

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