Putins Dilemma

PARIS – Zahlreiche Kritiker argumentieren, dass die über Russland wegen seiner Vorgehensweise in der Ukraine verhängten Sanktionen aufgrund ihres beschränkten Maßstabs und Umfangs unwirksam seien. Überdies würden es die Sanktionen dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin ermöglichen, dem Westen die Schuld an Russlands internen Problemen in die Schuhe zu schieben. Tatsächlich begrüßen manche der Anhänger Putins die Sanktionen als ein Mittel, um die Autarkie – und damit die strategische Unabhängigkeit – Russlands vom Westen zu erzwingen.

Diese Argumente sind falsch. Obwohl China die Sanktionen nicht unterstützt, zeigen diese bereits enorme Wirkung und die Aussicht auf eine weitere Verschärfung bereitet Anlegern und der russischen Regierung große Sorgen. Unterdessen würde vollständige Autarkie einen dramatischen Rückgang des russischen Lebensstandards – der Grundlage für die Unterstützung Putins im eigenen Land - mit sich bringen.

Die jüngsten Sanktionen sind beispiellos. Dabei ging die Europäische Union noch weiter als die Vereinigten Staaten.  Hinsichtlich des Engagements auf den russischen Märkten herrschen große Unterschiede zwischen den EU-Ländern – und zwischen der EU und den USA. Doch nach dem Abschuss von Flug 17 der Malaysia Airlines kann Russland seine Strategie des Teilens und Herrschens nicht mehr anwenden, um diese Unterschiede zu seinem Vorteil zu nutzen.

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