Zpola racionální nadšení

V roce 1996 se ekonom z Yaleovy univerzity Robert Shiller rozhlédl, zvážil historický vývoj a usoudil, že americký akciový trh je přeceněný. V minulosti platilo, že kdykoli byl poměr cena-výdělek příliš vysoký, akciové výnosy byly v budoucnu nízké. Tehdy se však ceny na širokém indexu S&P 500 držely na 29násobku průměru výnosů za předchozí dekádu.

Na základě ekonometrických regresivních analýz, jež provedl s Johnem Campbellem z Harvardu, Shiller v roce 1996 předpověděl, že S&P 500 bude v příštím desetiletí špatná investice. Za deset let, do ledna 2006, tvrdil, se reálná hodnota S&P 500 propadne. I se započtením dividend odhadoval, že pravděpodobné inflačně očištěné výnosy investorů do S&P 500 budou nulové, což je mnohem méně než zhruba 6% roční reálný zisk, který jsme si u amerického akciového trhu uvykli považovat za typický.

Shillerovy argumenty byly přesvědčivé. Alana Greenspana přiměly, aby v prosinci 1996 pronesl v American Enterprise Institute proslulou řeč o „iracionálním nadšení“. Mě rozhodně přesvědčily také.

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