半理性繁荣

1996年,耶鲁大学经济学家希勒在环顾当时情况并考量历史记录后得出结论说,美国股票市场价格被高估了。以往,一旦市盈率高涨,未来的长期股票收益就会降低。但是,现在标准普尔500种股份指数价格是过去十年平均收益值的29倍。

根据希勒以及哈佛大学坎贝尔教授进行的计量经济学衰退分析,希勒在1996年预言,在以后十年中,投资标准普尔500指数是糟糕的。他说,在到2006年1月的十年中,标准普尔500指数的实际价值将会下降。他预计,即便包括股息,拥有标准普尔500指数的投资者的收益在扣除通胀因素后可能为零。这远远低于我们所认为是典型的美国股票市场每年大约6%的实际收益。

希勒的言论令人信服,促使美联储主席格林斯潘1996年12月在美国企业研究所作出了其著名的“非理性繁荣”的演说。这些言论也让我深信不疑。

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