Paul Lachine

Doppeltes Spiel bei den Notenbanken

OXFORD – Die Notenbanken bekämpfen jetzt Liquidität, nicht nur Inflation. Durch den Kreditboom des letzten Jahrzehnts wurde klar, dass sich die Währungsbehörden eines Landes (oder wie bei der EU-Notenbank und der Eurozone einer Gruppe von Ländern) nicht nur auf Preise fixieren dürfen, sondern auch den Finanzsektor überwachen müssen. Unter Notenbankern ist die makroprudenzielle Regulierung in Mode gekommen, die ihre altbewährte Inflationskontrolle ergänzt.

Diese Entwicklung könnte die Geldpolitik radikal verändern. Sind die Auswirkungen positiv oder negativ? Die Bank of England mag in dieser Hinsicht Vorreiter sein, aber auch die EZB und die US-Federal Reserve verstärken ihre Regulierung. In der Tat hat der Europäische Ausschuss für Systemrisiken der EZB eine Funktion, die der des Financial Policy Committee (FPC, Ausschuss für Finanzpolitik) Großbritanniens ähnelt.

Am Ende einer Diskussion mit Andy Haldane, dem geschäftsführenden Direktor für Finanzstabilität und Mitglied des FPC, fragte ich ihn kürzlich: Was passiert, wenn die Inflation hoch und die Kreditvergabe niedrig ist? Bei diesem Szenario würde der Monetary Policy Committee (MPC, Ausschuss für Geldpolitik) der Bank of England eine Erhöhung der Zinssätze befürworten, während der FPC die Geldpolitik lieber lockern würde.

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