factory building Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Как объяснить нынешнюю стагнацию

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН – «Великая рецессия» 2007-2009 годов миновала, а крупнейшие центральные банки мира продолжают удерживать краткосрочные процентные ставки на уровне, близком к нулю. В США, даже после недавних решений ФРС, краткосрочные ставки сохраняются на уровне ниже 1%, при этом долгосрочные ставки по основным выпускам гособлигаций находятся на столь же низком уровне. Помимо этого, крупнейшие центробанки оказывают рынкам рекордную поддержку, выкупая огромные объёмов долгов и удерживая их.

Зачем вообще нужна вся эта экономическая реанимация и почему она длится так долго?

Было бы излишним упрощением говорить, что причиной стала Великая рецессия. В период 2007-2009 годов долгосрочные реальные (с поправкой на инфляцию) процентные ставки на самом деле не достигали столь низких уровней. Если посмотреть на график доходности десятилетних облигаций казначейства США за последние 35 лет, можно увидеть вполне уверенный понижающий тренд. При этом в нём не наблюдаются ничего особенно необычного в связи с Великой рецессией. Уровень доходности был равен 3,5% в 2009 году, то есть в конце рецессии. А сейчас он чуть выше 2%.

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