factory building Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Die heutige Stagnation verstehen lernen

NEW HAVEN – Seit der „Großen Rezession“ von 2007-2009 werden die Kurzfristzinsen von den weltweit bedeutenden Zentralbanken in der Nähe von Null gehalten. In den Vereinigten Staaten liegen sie trotz der jüngsten Zinserhöhungen der Federal Reserve immer noch unter 1%, und auch die Langfristzinsen der wichtigsten Staatsanleihen befinden sich auf ähnlich niedrigem Niveau. Darüber hinaus haben die großen Zentralbanken in die Märkte eingegriffen, indem sie in rekordverdächtigem Ausmaß Staatsschulden aufgekauft haben – und diese immer noch halten.

Warum sind diese ganzen wirtschaftlichen Rettungsmaßnahmen nötig, und warum für so lange Zeit?

Zu sagen, an all dem sei die Große Rezession schuld, wäre zu stark vereinfachend. Die langfristigen (inflationsbereinigten) Realzinsen haben in der Zeit zwischen 2007 und 2009 nicht wirklich einen Rekordtiefstand erreicht. Betrachtet man ein Schaubild der Erträge zehnjähriger Staatsanleihen über die letzten 35 Jahre, erkennt man einen ziemlich stetigen Abwärtstrend, aus dem die Große Rezession nicht besonders heraussticht. 2009, nach dem Ende der Rezession, lagen die Erträge bei 3,5%. Heute sind sie bei etwas über 2%.

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