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理解今天的停滞

纽黑文—自2007—2009年的“大衰退”以来,世界主要央行将短期利率保持在近零水平。在美国,即使在美联储最近的升息动作之后,短期利率仍然不到1%,而主要政府债券长期利率也处在类似水平上。此外,主要央行买入并持有巨量债务,对市场的支持也是创造了新纪录。

为何所有这些经济续命手段都是必须的,并且要维持如此之久?

如果说是大衰退导致了这一点的话,那是过于简化了。长期真实(经通胀调整的)利率在2007—2009年间其实并未触及低位。如果你回顾过去35年中的美国十年期国债收益率,就会发现一个稳步下降的趋势,大衰退并没有特别反常之处。2009年衰退终点时的收益率为3.5%。现在略高于2%。

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