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用SDR融资摆脱全球通缩

香港—人们日益认识到,在当今全球化的世界,金融市场已经超出了一国政策制定者的控制。虽然一些经济体的规模确实达到了可以影响相互关联的全球市场的规模,但它们都面临着严重的国内政治和经济的制约。结果,全球经济陷入了以顺周期失衡为特征的金融通缩长周期,难以找到摆脱之道。

克劳迪奥·博里奥(Claudio Borio)在多年前指出,全球金融周期与实体经济周期相比变得越来越长,并且与主要储备货币美元的价值波动密切相关。当美元疲软时,资本从美国流向其他国家,通过增加资本流入国的信用刺激其增长。

对这些国家(通常是新兴经济体)来说,不幸的是资本的流入也刺激了通货膨胀、资产泡沫和货币升值。结果是金融和地缘政治风险增加,从而让投资者更加青睐美元。随着资本流回美国,美元变得坚挺,而新兴经济体则需要面对资产泡沫破裂和货币贬值的后果。

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