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كيفية تمويل الانتعاش الاقتصادي العالمي

هونج كونج ــ هناك وعي متنام بأن الأسواق المالية في عالم اليوم الخاضع للعولمة أصبحت خارج سيطرة صناع السياسات المحليين. بينما تمتلك بضعة اقتصادات خططا لتشكيل أسواق عالمية مترابطة، لكنها تواجه قيودا سياسية واقتصادية. نتيجة لذلك، يظل الاقتصاد العالمي عالقا في دورة مالية مسايرة للدورات الاقتصادية، مع وجود خيارات ضئيلة للهرب.

إن الدورة المالية العالمية كما أشار كلوديو بوريو منذ سنوات أطول من الدورات الاقتصادية الحقيقية وأكبر منها، وترتبط ارتباطا وثيقا بقيمة عملة الاحتياط المهيمنة المتقلِّبة، الدولار الأمريكي. عندما يكون الدولار ضعيفا، تتدفق رؤوس الأموال من الولايات المتحدة إلى دول أخرى، حيث تدفع النمو عبر ائتمان متزايد.

ولسوء حظ هذه الدول، التي تكون عادة في العالم الناشئ، تدفع هذه التدفقات كذلك التضخم وفقاعات الأصول وارتفاع قيمة العملة. النتيجة هي الخطر المالي والجيوسياسي المتنامي، الذي يجعل الدولار الأمريكي أكثر جاذبية في أعين المستثمرين. مع تدفق رؤوس الأموال عائدة إلى الولايات المتحدة، يكتسب الدولار قوة، بينما تُترَك الاقتصادات الناشئة في مواجهة عواقب فقاعات الأصول المنفجرة وخفض قيمة العملة.

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