economist aurthur laffer Ted Soqui/Corbis via Getty Images

经济学中的科学与诡计

新德里—主流经济学有一种倾向,总是基于某些“既有”结论做决定,并死不悔改,哪怕所有证据都指向反面。这已经足够糟糕了,但也许最糟糕的是这门学科自称科学,却缺乏对实证结果可复制性的坚持。这在大部分自然科学都是应有之义、必备之理。在一些情形中,用来结论所必须的数据对其他研究者一概保密。

个中原因往往带有浓厚的政治因素,因为得到推广和散播的结果,是根据经济观念所做出,而这些经济观念需要支持特定的意识形态立场及相关政策立场。比如,支持财政紧缩或市场去监管的实证工作被大量引用,并成为推动这些特定政策结果的基础。这类工作很少能受到仔细调查——比如挑战其假设、质疑其统计程序——而在自然科学中,仔细调查才是规范。

以史蒂芬·摩尔(Stephen Moore)和亚瑟·拉弗(Arthur B. Laffer)的观点为例,他们认为,美国的特朗普减税不仅能够自动实现收支平衡,实际上还能够在减少政府赤字的同时,产生更多的私人投资。他们的说法是完全错误的,但是经济现实似乎对于相信拉弗曲线的主张——低税率会产生更高的税收收入——的人毫无影响。

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    The G20 in Osaka

    Shinzo Abe

    Japan is advocating a system of “Data Free Flow with Trust,” an approach that attempts to allow the free flow of data under rules upon which all people can rely. And launching DFFT is just one of four major agenda items that Japan's prime minister has in store for the group's upcoming summit.

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