Научный капитализм

ПРИНСТОН. Чтобы понять, как мы очутились в сегодняшнем экономическом беспорядке, сложные объяснения о производных ценных бумагах, ошибках регулирующих органов и т.п. не помогут. Лучший ответ прост и стар как мир: высокомерие.

В современной математической экономике многие люди из богатого мира решили, что мы, наконец, разработали набор научных инструментов, которые способны надёжно предсказывать поведение людей. Считалось, что данные инструменты так же надёжны, как инструменты инженера. Похоронив научный социализм по окончании «холодной войны», мы быстро взяли на вооружение другую науку о людях.

Наши новые убеждения не вытекали из какого-либо нового эксперимента или неожиданного наблюдения, как это происходит при изменении системы воззрений настоящей науки. Экономисты обычно не проводят эксперименты с реальными деньгами. А если и проводят, как это сделал нобелевский лауреат Майрон Шоулз, возглавлявший фонд хеджирования LTCM (Фонд управления долгосрочным капиталом), опасности часто перевешивают преимущества (урок, который мы, похоже, до сих пор не выучили). И поскольку почти все предсказания экономистов ведут себя не так, как было предсказано, никакое неожиданное предсказание не способно действительно изменить экономическую систему воззрений.

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