科学的资本主义

普林斯顿-要搞明白我们是如何把自己弄到如今这样乱糟糟的经济状况中的,那么,对金融衍生产品以及监管失败等等的复杂的解释,都不能说到点子上。解释这次危机的最佳答案古老而又简单:傲慢自大。

在数理经济学领域,富裕国家的很多人士曾认定,我们终于创造出了一整套科学工具,可以确确实实地预测人类的行为。这些工具被认为是和工程领域所使用的工具一样地可靠。当我们在冷战结束之际把科学社会主义送进坟墓之后,我们很快就又投进另一种有关人的科学的怀抱中。

我们新的信念并不像真正的科学理论框架的变化那样,源自与某种新实验或是出人意料的观点。经济学家通常不会用真的钱来进行实验。若他们真的这样做时,比如像诺贝尔奖得主迈伦·斯科尔斯曾经营名为长期资本管理公司(LTCM)的对冲基金,那危险往往大于益处(这个教训我们似乎仍然没有吸取。)而且,由于几乎经济学家的每一个观点都以出乎意料的形式告终,所以,任何出人意料的观点都不能真正改变经济理论框架。

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