Come colmare il deficit occupazionale dell’America

BERKELEY – Gli ultimi dati sulla disoccupazione negli Stati Uniti confermano la costante ripresa dell’economia americana dalla Grande Recessione del 2008-2009, nonostante la crisi stia facendo sprofondare le altre nazioni del G-20. Il passo della crescita occupazionale nel settore privato è stato effettivamente è stato effettivamente più sostenuto durante questa fase di ripresa rispetto alla ripresa dalla recessione del 2001, ed è comparabile alla ripresa dalla recessione del 1990-1991.

Durante gli ultimi 31 mesi, l’occupazione del settore privato ha registrato un incremento di 5,2 milioni e il tasso di disoccupazione ora è sceso al di sotto dell’8% per la prima volta in quasi quattro anni. Ma il tasso di disoccupazione è ancora oltre due punti percentuali sopra al valore di lungo periodo che gran parte degli economisti considera normale quando l’economia si mantiene vicina al proprio potenziale produttivo.

Inoltre, il numero di disoccupati nel lungo periodo (27 settimane o più) è all’incirca il 40% del totale – la percentuale più bassa dal 2009, ma ancora nettamente più alta rispetto alle precedenti recessioni dalla Grande Depressione, e all’incirca il doppio del valore previsto in un normale mercato del lavoro. Per questo motivo il mercato del lavoro americano, pur in ripresa, è ancora lontano dalla sua meta.

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