La Situazione Problematica della Bilancia dei Pagamenti della Cina

PECHINO – I dati riguardanti la bilancia dei pagamenti pubblicati, nel mese di Aprile, dall'Ufficio Cambi cinese (State Administration of Foreign Exchange SAFE) dovrebbero aver provocato seria preoccupazione, se non allarme. I dati hanno correto il deficit dei redditi da investimento delle Cina per il 2011, che è passato da 26.800 a 85.300 miliardi dollari – una correzione massiva che mette in dubbio l'affidabilità delle statistiche riguardanti la bilancia dei pagamenti della Cina e segnala un punto debole nella traiettoria di crescita dell'economia. Ma solo poche persone sembrano preoccuparsene.

Secondo il SAFE, a quanto risultava nel 2012, la Cina avrebbe accumulato 4.700 miliardi dollari in attività estere attraverso acquisti di titoli di Stato statunitensi e altri investimenti, e più di 2.900 miliardi dollari in passività estere attraverso investimenti diretti esteri (IDE) e presiti. Questo quantifica le attività nette della Cina a circa 1.800 miliardi dollari.

Tuttavia, nonostante la Cina sia uno dei più grandi grandi creditori al mondo, il saldo netto dei redditi da investimento è profondamente negativo. In realtà, la Cina ha avuto un deficit della pratita-investimenti per sei degli ultimi nove anni, deficit che le statistiche preliminari stimano a 57,4 miliardi di dollari nel 2012.

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