Jak zachránit řeckého hříšníka

MNICHOV – Současná slabost eura má jednu příčinu: Řecko. Nejnovější deficit běžného účtu Řecka ve výši 14% HDP byl po Kypru největší ze všech zemí eurozóny. Řecký poměr dluhu k HDP činil na konci roku 2009 113%. A protože se předpokládá, že letošní schodek přesáhne 12% scvrkávajícího se HDP, vyšplhá se poměr dluhu k HDP do konce roku 2010 nad hranici 125%, což bude nejvíce v celé eurozóně.

Investoři reagovali tak, že se snažili odejít od eura a zejména se vyhýbat řeckému vládnímu dluhu. Řecko jim muselo nabízet stále vyšší úrokové míry, aby se udrželo ve hře. Úroková prémie oproti německému veřejnému dluhu činila v lednu 2,73 procentního bodu. Pokud tato prémie přetrvá, bude muset Řecko zaplatit na úrocích ze svého dluhu v objemu 271 miliard eur celkem o 7,4 miliardy více, než by muselo platit při německé sazbě.

Problémem není jen samotná prémie, ale i bezprostřední riziko, že se Řecku nepodaří sehnat 53 miliard eur, které bude v roce 2010 potřebovat na obsluhu svého dluhu, natožpak dalších odhadovaných 30 miliard eur na financování nového dluhu vyplývajícího z navrženého rozpočtového schodku.

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