为挽救增长节约资源

纽约-调和全球经济增长-特别是发展中国家的经济增长-与全球能源、粮食、土地和水不断强化的供应制约的矛盾,是我们时代的一个重大课题。因为需求的增加与有限的全球供应相比,差距越来越大,所以商品价格在全球范围内暴涨,不仅仅是像食品和能源这样饱受关注的商品,而且还有金属、耕地、淡水以及其他对增长至关重要的要素。在油价每桶135美元以及去年以来谷物价格翻番的压力下,全球经济已经在放缓。

现在需要一个新的全球增长策略来维持全球经济进步。基本问题是,现在全球经济体如此庞大,它正在触及以前从未触及的界限。全球有67亿人口,并且持续以每年增加750万人的速度增长,特别是在世界上最贫穷的国家人口增长迅速。按照世界不同地区的价格水平调整后,人均年度产出大约是1万美元,这意味着总产出大约为67万亿美元。

当然,在富裕国家和最贫穷的国家之间有巨大的差距,在富裕国家每人大约是4万美元,在最贫穷的国家每人是1千美元或更少。但是许多贫穷国家,最出名的是中国和印度,通过利用最尖端的技术,在最近几年经济已经获得了巨大的增长。结果,全球经济在最近几年以大约每年5%的速度增长。如果这一势头持续,全球经济规模将在14年内翻番。

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