Spanish TTIP Protest Pacific Press

Можно ли спасти глобальный капитализм?

ЛОНДОН – Политика, формируемая под влиянием экономического недовольства, толкает сейчас электорат в США и Великобритании в руки популистов. Общепринято считать, что, если экономика вернётся к «нормальным» темпам роста ВВП и производительности, тогда для многих людей жизнь улучшится, антиэлитные настроения ослабнут и политика, тем самым, также вернётся в «нормальное» состояние. В результате, капитализм, глобализация и демократия продолжат свой победный марш вперёд.

Однако подобные рассуждения являются экстраполяцией в будущее тенденций периода истории, который во многом был нестандартным. Этот период сейчас завершился, а силы, которые его определяли, вряд ли начнут действовать вновь в ближайшем будущем. Тенденции технологических инноваций и демографии сменили направление, став для экономики не попутным ветром, а встречным. И даже финансовый инжиниринг не поможет спасти положение.

Нестандартный период истории длился примерно сто лет после гражданской войны в США. За это время прорывные успехи в сфере энергетики, электрификации, телекоммуникаций и транспорта фундаментально изменили общество. Люди стали существенно более производительными, радикально выросла продолжительность жизни. С 1800 по 1900 годы численность населения планеты увеличилась лишь на 50%, а в течение последующих 50 лет – более чем вдвое. Экономика при этом тоже росла намного быстрее, чем в предыдущие столетия.

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